Regularisation, and the answer that is chosen
When the answer is a choice
A backward-stable least-squares solve of this problem returns an answer whose relative error is 5.5·10⁸. Nothing went wrong. The singular values decay exponentially with no gap anywhere in them, the data does not determine the answer, and something outside the data has to choose — which is the computation rather than a preliminary to it.
Where the answer stops being in the data
The Picard condition finds the index where a noisy right-hand side stops carrying signal, from the data alone, with no knowledge of the answer. It lands at 32 where the truncation that actually minimises the error is 28 — and at 45 where the best is 38. It overshoots at every noise level from 1% to 0.001%, and it overshoots for a reason.
Choosing without knowing
Three published rules for choosing a regularisation parameter, scored against an oracle that requires the exact answer and is therefore not a method. Generalised cross-validation lands on the oracle's λ exactly; the discrepancy principle costs 6%; the L-curve costs 129%. And told a noise level ten times too small, the discrepancy principle's error goes from 0.112 to 10,449.