Series

Leverage — the series

6 essays on one idea, from the one that introduces it to the one that assumes the rest.
  1. the diagonal of the hat matrix, hᵢ = aᵢᵀ(AᵀA)⁻¹aᵢ · dashed: its average p/m = 0.200p/m10the leave-one-out residual: eᵢ/(1 − hᵢ), and forty refitsbars: closed form · dots: refitted without that pointone number, two fieldsΣ hᵢ, exactly p10largest leverage0.5closed form against refits8.9·10⁻¹³1 − h of the first row0.5y appears in the residualand nowhere in the leverage

    Influence is decided before the data

    The diagonal of the hat matrix sums to the number of columns and the response appears nowhere in it, so a fit has exactly p units of influence to hand out among m observations. The same row at h = 0.5 is a ten-fold outlier on one design and a boundary case on another, and which of those it is was settled before a single measurement was taken.

    part 1 · leastsquares
  2. -1012345612345678xyall 32without one twinwithout boththe pair at x = 6leverage of each0.44pair's joint share0.89deleted alone, mean0.62deleted together, mean3each twin covers for the otheronly removing both shows the shift

    Two observations that hide each other

    Two observations at the same place, wrong by the same amount, each look harmless when deleted alone, because a fit without one still has the other. Single deletion sees the shared error cut by (1 − 2h)/(1 − h) — measured at 261 times at the far end — and only the pair's two-by-two block of the hat matrix says what the two of them hold.

    part 2 · leastsquares
  3. 1357911131510⁻¹⁶10⁻¹⁴10⁻¹²10⁻¹⁰10⁻⁸10⁻⁶10⁻⁴10⁻²1k, where h = 1 − 10⁻ᵏrelative error of 1 − h1 − ‖R⁻ᵀa‖²1 − ‖row of Q₁‖²‖row of Q₂‖²40 × 6k = 12, Cholesky route1.1·10⁻⁴k = 12, thin QR route4.4·10⁻⁴complement, worst k3·10⁻¹⁵one minus a sum of squaresor the sum of the other squares

    One minus a leverage is a subtraction

    Every deletion diagnostic divides by 1 − h, and computing it as one minus a computed leverage loses digits in proportion to 1/(1 − h), however accurate the leverage. The complementary block of a QR factor gives the same number as a sum of squares and loses κ(A)·u instead: every digit on a well-conditioned design, and half the digits the subtraction loses on a design whose far point is what made 1 − h small.

    part 3 · leastsquares
  4. 1357911131510⁻¹⁶10⁻¹⁴10⁻¹²10⁻¹⁰10⁻⁸10⁻⁶10⁻⁴10⁻²1k, where h = 1 − 10⁻ᵏrelative error of 1 − hsubtractwith a correction stepcorrection kept as a pairfrom the reflectors40 × 6k = 12, subtracting1.1·10⁻⁴k = 12, with a correction1.1·10⁻⁴k = 12, from the reflectors3·10⁻¹⁵reflector operations900dashed: a unit of roundoff over the divisorthree routes sit on it and one does not

    The factor a sparse code keeps anyway

    Every deletion diagnostic divides by one minus a leverage, and computing it as a subtraction loses a digit for every decade the leverage is from one. The route that does not subtract needs the orthogonal factor, which a sparse factorisation is supposed not to have. Three repairs that avoid it all fail at exactly a unit of roundoff over the divisor — and the fourth, which reaches the orthogonal factor through the Householder vectors a sparse code keeps in order to solve anything at all, returns the same bits as a stored factor in 900 operations.

    part 4 · leastsquares
  5. heavy row first1 − h at 4³⁰7.4·10⁻¹⁸κ(A) at 4³⁰3.1·10⁸complement's error2.1·10⁻¹⁶110³10⁶10⁹10¹²10¹⁵10¹⁸10⁻¹⁷10⁻¹⁵10⁻¹³10⁻¹¹10⁻⁹10⁻⁷10⁻⁵10⁻³10⁻¹weight on the rowrelative error of 1 − h1 − ‖R⁻ᵀa‖²1 − ‖row of Q₁‖²‖row of Q₂‖²κ(A)·uthe rows are the same in every positiononly the order the factorisation meets them changes

    The weight the factor met first

    The route to one minus a leverage through the orthogonal factor was said to lose a digit for every decade of the condition number, whatever else it does. Put a weight on one row and it does not. With the heavy row first, the complement keeps every digit at κ(A) = 2.5·10⁹ while both subtractions return nothing. With the same row last it loses digits as the row's scale grows. And two heavy rows that leave κ(A) at 3.1 still lose six digits when the light rows come first. The law was about the order the factor met the rows, and the condition number had been standing in for it.

    part 5 · leastsquares
  6. heavy row firstresidual at 4³⁰-2.8·10⁻¹⁰complement's error9.1·10⁻¹⁶110³10⁶10⁹10¹²10¹⁵10¹⁸10⁻¹⁷10⁻¹⁵10⁻¹³10⁻¹¹10⁻⁹10⁻⁷10⁻⁵10⁻³10⁻¹weight on the rowrelative error of its residualb − Axb − Ax, exactlyQ₂Q₂ᵀbu·wthe same rows, the same data, in every positionthe solution misfits the heavy row by its own rounding

    The residual the solution cannot hold

    Sorting a weighted fit's rows heaviest first gave every digit of one minus the heavy row's leverage back. It gives nothing back to the heavy row's residual, if that residual is computed the way every textbook computes it — as the datum minus the fitted value. The fitted value is a double, and a double cannot resolve a misfit smaller than its own last digit times the weight: at a weight of 4²⁴ the residual formed from the solution is wrong in its second digit in every order, and forming the subtraction exactly changes nothing. Taken from the same orthogonal factor as the divisor, the residual keeps fifteen digits, and so does Cook's distance at 3.4·10¹⁷.

    part 6 · leastsquares

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