Reduction order — the ladder
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The same program, twice
One vector of 4,096 numbers, one summation algorithm, one precision, twenty-six runs — and twenty-one different answers. Nothing in the program chose between them, every one of them satisfies the textbook bound, and the exactly rounded answer is not among them.
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A bound every answer satisfies
The classical bound on a summation error is correct, it covers all twenty-six answers one vector produced, and it is 7,932 times larger than the difference between them. A statement true of every ordering cannot say which ordering you got.
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Where the disagreement comes from
The error of a reduction is a walk whose step length is the spacing of the running total, not of the answer. That one sentence predicts the size of the disagreement to a factor of two, explains why dividing the work makes it smaller, and explains why the value cannot be predicted at all.