Sequence of solves — the series
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The problem that arrives again
A hundred and thirty essays have solved a system once and measured how wrong the answer was. Almost no computation is shaped like that. A solve is one step of an outer loop, its answer is an input rather than a deliverable, and four quantities treated here as accuracy requirements turn out to be assets with a shelf life.
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The order a batch arrives in
Sixteen problems over a parameter, solved in the order the loop produced them, cost a median of 1.54 times what the same sixteen cost sorted, and 2.80 times at the worst shuffling. A nearest-neighbour path computed from the parameter values alone recovers the sorted cost exactly, at every drift and every shuffle.
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A warm start is degree zero
The previous answer used as the next member's starting point costs 160 inner steps over twenty members. The line through the last two answers costs 12 — a factor of thirteen, for three vector operations and no extra storage. The parabola through the last three costs 26, which is worse than the line and better than the point.
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A straight path has nothing for a parabola to fit
The line through the last two answers beat the parabola through the last three on a drifting sequence, and the reason offered was that the parabola amplifies the stored answers' error. Tightening the solve tolerance from 10⁻⁶ to 10⁻¹⁴ should have reversed that, and it does not: the line needs 7 to 18 inner steps over twenty members at every tolerance and the parabola 14 to 23. The sequence's roots move along a straight line, so the line is exact and there is nothing else to fit. Bend the path by a part in ten thousand and the parabola wins below 10⁻⁹, by 105 steps to 75 at 10⁻¹⁴.
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The degree the history chooses
A sequence of solves can start each member from the line through its last two answers or the parabola through its last three, and which is better depends on how much its path bends — which a code does not know. Over thirty runs of bend and tolerance, always taking the line costs 456 inner steps more than the better choice; always taking the parabola costs 33. A free rule reading the stored answers closes that to 11. A rule that evaluates the residual at both starts picks the better one on 29 runs of 30, and pays 135 steps for the evaluations.
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A fit wins where the steps were few
The line through the last two answers of a sequence of solves amplifies their stored error by √5, and the parabola through the last three by √19. A least-squares line through five amplifies it by 1.05 and a parabola through six by 1.79, and on a straight path both beat their interpolants at every tolerance: 12 inner steps against 17 at 10⁻¹⁴. On a bent path they lose, by exactly the ratio of their truncation constants, and they lose in the runs that cost a hundred steps rather than ten. Over thirty runs no fitted start beats the parabola through three, and the best of eight starts chosen per run saves 58 steps out of 1,212.